In the first three quarters of this year, due to the further enhanced and improved macro-control measures, some unstable and unhealthy factors existing in economic life have been put under control; the weak links have been enhanced which have avoided big ups and downs in economic life. National economy keeps stable and fast growth.
1. National economy kept stable and fast growth. According to preliminary estimation, in the first three quarters of this year, the gross domestic product reached 9,314.4 billion yuan, up 9.5% over the same period last year, or 0.6 percentage points higher. Of this total, the value-added of the primary industry was 1,256.1billion yuan, up 5.5%; that of the secondary industry was 5,163.1 billion yuan, up 10.9%; that of the tertiary industry was 2,895.3 billion yuan, up 8.5%.
2. A turning point was shown in agricultural, in particular grain production. In 2004, Chinese government adopted a series of more direct, powerful and effective policy measures to support agriculture, in particular, the grain production, which has greatly aroused the enthusiasm of farmers. Following the 4.8% growth of summer grain, the output of early rice reached 32.1 billion kilograms, up 8.8%. Good harvest will be seen in the output of autumn crops. The total output of grain for the whole year will surpass that in the previous year, achieving the target set at the beginning of this year.
3. Industrial production kept rapid growth. In the first three quarters of this year, the value added of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3,877.5 billion yuan, up 17.0%. Of this total, the growth of the heavy industry was 18.5%, and that of the light industry was 15.4%. The economic efficiency of industrial enterprises continued to improve. In the first three quarters of this year, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size reached 808.8 billion yuan, up 39.8% over the same period of last year. The sales ratio of industrial products reached 97.8%, up 0.2 percentage points over the same period last year.
4. The momentum of fast growth in investment in fixed assets was initially put under control. In the first three quarters of this year, the total investment in fixed assets was 4,510.2 billion yuan, up 27.7% over the same period last year, it was 15.3 and 0.9 percentage points lower as compared with that in the first quarter and first half of this year. Of the total investment, the urban investment in fixed assets was 3,802.8 billion yuan, up 29.9%. The growth rate of investment in those over-heating sectors dropped obviously, the investment in steel and cement dropped by 65.5 and 43.4 percentage points as compared with that in the first quarter of this year. The investment in aluminum shifted from first quarter¡¯s 39.3% growth to current 6.5% decline. The growth of investment in real estate was 28.3%, it was 12.8 percentage points lower as compared with that in the first quarter. Rapid growth was seen in investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing industries, in the first three quarters the growth was 21.4% over the same period last year, or 21.0 percentage points higher as compared with that in the first quarter of this year.
5. Sales on domestic market accelerated to some extent. In the first three quarters of this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 3,843.9 billion yuan, up 13.0% over the same period last year, and the real growth was 9.7% after deducting price factors, it was 0.6 percentage points higher over the same period last year. The total retail sales of consumer goods in cities amounted to 2,553.1 billion yuan, up 14.6%; that at and below county level were 1,290.8 billion yuan, up 9.9%.
6. The growth of consumer price was stable. In the first three quarters of this year, the year on year change of CPI was 4.1%. Of the total, the CPI in cities was up by 3.6%, and that in rural areas was up 5.1%. In terms of different categories, in the first three quarters of this year, price for food was up by 10.9%, of this total, the price for grain was up by 28.4%; price for housing was up 4.4%; price for tobacco, alcohol, daily necessities and recreational, educational articles and services went up by 1.3% and 1% respectively. However, prices for clothing, household apparatus and services, health care and personal articles, and means of communication and transportation declined to some extent. In terms of month on month changes, the trend of expansion of price rise has been reversed. In September, the month on month change of CPI was 5.2%, it was 0.1 percentage point lower over that in August.
7. Foreign trade kept fast growth, utilization of foreign capitals continued to increase. In the first three quarters of this year, the total volume of imports and exports was 828.5 billion US dollars, up 36.7% over the same period last year. The total volume of exports was 416.2 billion US dollars, up 35.3%, and the total volume of imports was 412.3 billion US dollars, up 38.2%, with a trade deficit of 3.9 billion US dollars. In the first three quarters of this year, the contracted volume of foreign direct investment reached 107.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 35.6% over the same period last year; the actually utilized foreign investment was 48.7 billion US dollars, up 21.0%. By the end of September, foreign exchange reserves of China reached 514.5 billion US dollars, an increase of 111.2 billion US dollars as compared with that at the beginning of this year.
8. The income of urban and rural residents increased rapidly. In the first three quarters of this year, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 7,072 yuan; the real growth was 7.0% after deducting price factors, the growth rate was little bit lower than that in the same period of last year. The per capita cash income of rural residents was 2,110 yuan, up 11.4%, the growth rate was 7.6 percentage points higher over the same period of last year.
All these illustrate that the series measures adopted by Central government in strengthening and improving macro-control in this year are correct and necessary and have achieved significant results. However, at the same time, we should also notice that those achievements are initial ones, though some of the prominent problems exiting in economic life have been alleviated, the bases are still weak. The incentive of excessive investment is still there; the base for grain production and increase of farmers¡¯ income is rather weak; the prices for some upstream products, i.e. intermediate input products, are still high. The supply of coal, electricity and oil could not meet the need of demand. The inventory of manufactured industrial goods and debt receivable move up quickly. We cannot treat those problems lightly. We should further enhance and expand the achievements of macro-control to guard against the rebound of those problems.
As for the economic performance for the whole year, as long as we continuously implement various macro-control policies made by the central government, and do a solid work in all fields in the last quarter of this year, the targets set at the beginning of this year for economic and social development are achievable.